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How it works · Envaro pricing engine

How the engine prices every game

Envaro's engine checks every NBA game from the time betting lines open until one hour before tip. It publishes an official pick only when a game clears a fixed bar, and it keeps a permanent record of every decision.

See today's picksSee the timeline

The process

The four steps

Code computes every number, the same way for every game. AI does not pick games.
  1. 1

    Collect

    Betting lines, schedules, scores and rosters, plus player availability from the official NBA injury report and ESPN's injury list.

    Checked every few minutes

  2. 2

    Price

    Three team ratings, player availability, rest and home court set a fair line. The engine also estimates where the line will move by tip-off and prices the bet against that.

    Priced against the expected final line

  3. 3

    Decide

    Each side gets a score out of 40. A game becomes an official pick at 28 or more, if it passes every guardrail. Every other game gets a lean.

    Never forced

  4. 4

    Record

    Every check, pick, lean and grade is stored permanently. After each game, picks are graded and compared with the final line before tip.

    Cannot be edited

Inputs

What the engine uses

A short list of inputs, used the same way for every game.

01

Team ratings

Three ratings for every team

  • From game results
  • From recent form
  • From the market's recent closing lines

02

Player availability

Who is expected to play

  • The official NBA injury report
  • ESPN's injury list

03

Rest and home court

Where and when each team plays

  • Back-to-backs
  • Which team is at home

04

The line move

Where the line is likely to be at tip-off

  • Each bet is priced against this estimate

The schedule

When games are checked

Each game runs on its own clock, set by its tip time.

  1. −30h

    Lines open

    Checks start once a betting line is posted, up to 30 hours before tip.

  2. Every few minutes

    Checked again and again

    Each check prices the game again and is saved. The lean can change from check to check.

  3. 28 of 40

    Official pick published

    The first check that scores 28 or more and passes every guardrail. The pick keeps that line and price for good.

  4. −1h

    Lock

    Checks stop an hour before tip. A game without an official pick keeps its last lean.

  5. Tip

    The close

    The final line before tip is recorded.

  6. After the game

    Graded against the close

    Each pick is graded at the number it was published at, then compared with the close.

−30h

Lines open

Up to 30 hours before tip

Checks start once a betting line is posted, but no earlier than 30 hours before tip. They run every few minutes.

  • Every check is saved
  • A game can qualify on any check
  • Leans can change from check to check
28+

Official pick

The first time a game qualifies

The pick is published at that moment's line and price, and it is never changed afterward.

  • Subscribers get a Telegram message
  • Major news before tip brings an update
  • Graded at the published line and price
−1h

Final check

One hour before tip

Checks stop. A game without an official pick keeps its last lean, which is graded separately.

  • The final line before tip is recorded
  • Picks and leans are graded after the game
  • Grades appear on the Results page

Each game has its own window

A game can become an official pick from 30 hours before its tip, once a line is posted, until one hour before tip. All times Eastern.

1:00 PM tip

Afternoon game

From 7:00 AM the day before until noon

7:30 PM tip

Evening game

From 1:30 PM the day before until 6:30 PM

10:00 PM tip

Late game

From 4:00 PM the day before until 9:00 PM

When the game can become an official pickTip

The score

The 40-point score

Every side of every game gets a score from 0 to 40. The score comes from the engine's estimate of expected value.

Four parts, one total · the parts always add up to the score

The score is the sum of four parts: team strength from 0 to 20, market support from 0 to 8, matchup from 0 to 8 and situation from 0 to 4, for a total from 0 to 40. At 24 the engine's estimate of expected value is zero. 28 is the lowest score for an official pick.

Team strength0–20

The gap between the engine's team ratings and the line.

Market support0–8

Whether the market's own recent ratings of these teams also disagree with the line.

Matchup0–8

Recent form: how each team has played lately.

Situation0–4

Rest, such as back-to-backs, and injuries.

Score0–40

Break-even
24
At this score, the engine's estimate of expected value is zero.
The minimum for an official pick
28
Four points above break-even. A game that scores lower stays a lean.

Guardrails

When a game is held back

Some games cannot be official picks, whatever their score. They still show as a lean, with the reason.
  1. 01

    Too early in the season

    Either team has played fewer than 8 games.
  2. 02

    Engine and line far apart

    The engine's number and the line differ by more than 6 points. That is treated as a data problem.
  3. 03

    Line far from the market's view

    The line is more than 6 points from the market's own recent ratings of the two teams. That usually means news the engine does not have yet.
  4. 04

    Short-handed team

    Either team is missing 30% or more of its rotation minutes.
  5. 05

    Key player questionable

    A high-impact player is listed as questionable, doubtful or day to day.
  6. 06

    Late in the season

    From March 1, an official pick cannot back a team that has been outscored by more than 5 points a game over the season.
  7. 07

    Missing data

    No current roster, no injury feed, or a tip time that is not confirmed.
  8. 08

    Automatic pause

    If recent official picks stop beating the closing line, official picks pause automatically. Leans are still shown, and the site says when picks are paused.

Two kinds of call

Official picks and leans

Shown separately and graded separately.

Official picks

Published once

  • Published the first time a game scores 28 or more and passes every guardrail.
  • Fixed at that moment's line and price, and never changed afterward.
  • A flat 1 unit each.
  • Most slates have none. In testing on past seasons, there was about one official pick every five slates.

If major news breaks before tip, subscribers get an update on Telegram and the pick card shows it. The pick itself stays the same.

Leans

Every other game

  • Every game without an official pick gets a lean: the side the engine prefers.
  • A lean can change with each check until one hour before tip.
  • Leans are shown separately and graded separately.
  • They never count as official picks.

When a guardrail holds a game back, its lean shows the reason.

The site

Using the site

Where to find picks, details and results. These pages are for signed-in members.

  • Today's picks

    Official picks first, then a lean for every other game. Each official pick shows its score, the four parts and the reasons. Use the date buttons to see other days.

    Open today's picks

  • Game details

    Every check the engine made on one game, with its decision and grade.

    Linked from every pick and lean

  • Results

    The record, closing line value, and expected value at the close, with sample sizes. Leans are tracked separately.

    Open the results

  • Telegram alerts

    Subscribers get a message when an official pick is published, and an update if major news breaks before tip.

    For subscribers

  • Performance

    The older performance view, with the 2025-26 record from the previous system.

    Open the performance view

  • 2025-26 archive

    Last season's analyses, kept read-only.

    Browse the archive

Questions

Common questions

When are games checked?
Every few minutes, from the time betting lines open (up to 30 hours before tip) until one hour before tip. Each game runs on its own clock, so an early game and a late game on the same day have different windows.
Why are there no official picks today?
Most slates have none. A game needs a score of 28 or more out of 40 and has to pass every guardrail, and the engine never forces a pick to fill a slate. In testing on past seasons, there was about one official pick every five slates.
What is a lean?
In every game without an official pick, the lean is the side the engine prefers. Leans are shown and graded separately, and they never count as official picks.
Can a pick change after it is published?
No. A pick keeps the line and price from the moment it was published. If major news breaks before tip, subscribers get an update message and the pick card shows it, but the pick itself stays the same.
How are results measured?
Official picks are graded at the line and price they were published at, at a flat 1 unit each. The Results page shows the record, closing line value and expected value at the close, with sample sizes. Closing line value compares a pick's number with the final line before tip. Leans are graded separately.
Does AI pick the games?
No. Every number comes from code. Each pick shows the engine's own reasons in plain language. An optional AI write-up may reword those reasons into a short note. It is labeled as written by AI, and code fills in every number in it.
What happens at the start of the season?
The 2026-27 season starts on October 20, 2026. Until both teams in a game have played 8 games, the engine shows only a lean for that game. Official picks start after that, around early November.
Where are last season's analyses?
Analyses from the 2025-26 season are kept read-only in the 2025-26 archive. They came from an older system and are not part of the Results page.
How accurate are the picks?
Every result is kept on the Results page, including the losses. We don't promise wins. Picks are for information only, and past results do not guarantee future results.

Ready to see today's picks?

Official picks and leans for every game on today's slate, each with the engine's reasons.

See today's picksView results

Picks are for information only. Past results do not guarantee future results.