Skip to content

Envaro pricing engine · NBA spreads

NBA spread picks, on the record

Envaro's engine checks every NBA game from the time betting lines open until one hour before tip. It publishes an official pick only when a game clears a fixed bar. Each pick keeps the line and price it was published at, and every result is recorded, including the losses.

See today's picksHow it works
Checked
−30h to −1h
Every few minutes, once a line is posted
Official pick bar
28/40
Most slates have none
Stake
1 unit
The same for every official pick
Once published
Fixed
News brings an update, not a new pick

Example · Official pick from the 2025-26 replay

ORL @ OKC

Tue, Feb 3, 2026 · Tip 8:00 PM ET

OKC −7.5

Published Tue 7:00 AM ET · graded at this number

Example from the 2025-26 replay: the OKC line sat at −7.5 from the afternoon before the game. The engine published OKC −7.5 at 7:00 AM ET on game day and expected about −8.9. The line closed at −11.5 before the 8:00 PM ET tip. OKC won 128 to 92.−12−11−10−9−8−7EXP −8.9PICKED −7.5CLOSED−11.53:00 PM7:00 AMTIP 8:00 PM
Picked
−7.5
7:00 AM, game day
Expected
−8.9
1.4 points toward OKC
Closed
−11.5
4 points past the pick
An example from the 2025-26 replay, not a live pick. Up on the chart means the market moved toward the side the engine took. Final: OKC 128, ORL 92.

How it works

One game, from open to close

Each game runs on its own clock, set by its tip time. Code computes every number, the same way for every game.
Read the full explanation

  1. −30h

    Lines open

    Checks start once a betting line is posted, up to 30 hours before tip.

  2. Every few minutes

    Checked again and again

    Each check prices the game again and is saved. The lean can change from check to check.

  3. 28 of 40

    Official pick published

    The first check that scores 28 or more and passes every guardrail. The pick keeps that line and price for good.

  4. −1h

    Lock

    Checks stop an hour before tip. A game without an official pick keeps its last lean.

  5. Tip

    The close

    The final line before tip is recorded.

  6. After the game

    Graded against the close

    Each pick is graded at the number it was published at, then compared with the close.

Today

Today's scoreboard

Scores and spreads from ESPN, updated every 30 seconds. Signed-in members also see official picks marked on their games.
See today's picks
Loading games...

The 40-point score

One score, four parts

Every side of every game gets a score from 0 to 40, and the four parts always add up to it. At 24 the engine's estimate of expected value is zero. 28 is the bar for an official pick.
How the score works

The score is the sum of four parts: team strength from 0 to 20, market support from 0 to 8, matchup from 0 to 8 and situation from 0 to 4, for a total from 0 to 40. At 24 the engine's estimate of expected value is zero. 28 is the lowest score for an official pick.

Team strength0–20

Market support0–8

Matchup0–8

Situation0–4

Score0–40

Official picks

28/40the lowest score that can be an official pick
  • Must pass every guardrail
  • Fixed once published, at that line and price
  • A flat 1 unit each

Held back, whatever the score, when

  • A team has played fewer than 8 games
  • A high-impact player is listed questionable
  • A team is missing 30% or more of its rotation minutes
  • Data is missing, such as no injury feed
Every guardrail

Most slates have no official pick. Picks are never forced.

Leans

Every other game

In every game without an official pick, the lean is the side the engine prefers.

  • Shown apart from official picks
  • Graded separately
  • Never counted as official picks

A lean can change with each check until one hour before tip. When a guardrail holds a game back, its lean shows the reason.

The rules

The same rules for every game

  1. 01

    Picks are never forced

    Most slates have no official pick. A game has to clear the bar on its own.
  2. 02

    Published once, never changed

    A pick keeps the line and price from the moment it was published. Late news brings an update message, not a new pick.
  3. 03

    Every decision is recorded

    Every check, pick, lean and grade is stored permanently and cannot be edited.
  4. 04

    Closing line value is tracked

    Each pick's number is compared with the final line before tip.
  5. 05

    Leans are kept apart

    Leans are shown and graded separately. They never count as official picks.
  6. 06

    Flat 1 unit per pick

    Every official pick is the same size.
  7. 07

    Automatic pause

    Official picks pause if recent picks stop beating the closing line.
  8. 08

    Code computes every number

    AI does not pick games.

Members can see every graded pick on the Results page. Last season's analyses are kept read-only in the 2025-26 archive.

Inputs

What goes into each price

The engine collects betting lines, schedules and rosters. These four inputs set its fair line.

01

Team ratings

From game results, recent form and the market's recent closing lines.

02

Player availability

The official NBA injury report and ESPN's injury list.

03

Rest

Back-to-backs.

04

Home court

Which team is at home.

Then the line move. The engine also estimates where the line will move by tip-off and prices the bet against that.

Ready to see today's picks?

Official picks come first, then a lean for every other game, each with the engine's reasons.

See today's picksHow it works

Picks are for information only. Past results do not guarantee future results.